Transense had its final results on the 23rd Sept. Unfortunately after these results I decided to call it a day for now(after being in the stock for 2.5yrs). I still like the management team and what they are trying to achieve, I just don’t think the numbers add up anymore. The company made £1.4m in profit, £3.1 of which is due to Itrack royalties. By their own estimates the royalties will be down by £1m in the short term and eventually disappear by 2030. When I invested the mcap of the company was pretty much covered by the royalty payments and the rest was optionality. At present, mcap is 18.5m with expected royalties of 9.5m(present value of 8m). So basically £10m mcap for a business which made £2m of revenue(ex Itrack) and has administrative(3.5m) and cost of sales(0.5m). So basically run rate of losing £2m per year. Now if we assume SAW(one of the main growth divisions) has a profit margin of 20%(as per their latest call), they will need £10m of revenues just to break even(again assuming costs don’t go up which they will). That is a pretty tall order for a division which only had 700k of revenue at present. I will be keeping an eye on the stock but for now I am out at 120p.
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