Greggs trading update

My take on this morning’s Greggs update: solid, but not the upgrade some were hoping for. Total sales were up 7.5% to £800m and, more interestingly, like-for-like growth has quietly accelerated to 3.3% in the most recent 10 weeks. The new Chicken Roll and Matcha launches are clearly doing their job – this business still knows how to land a menu hit.

That said, I’m not getting carried away. Full-year guidance is unchanged, H1 profit progress is partly flattered by a soft 2025 comparator, and the Derby commissioning costs still loom large in H2. The new caveat around Middle East cost inflation gives the update a slightly more cautious tone than the trading actually justifies.

For me, this de-risks the first half without changing the bigger picture. The real test is whether menu-led momentum carries into the summer.