TJX Q1 update

This is a high-quality update across all the things that matter for an off-price retailer: traffic up, comp up across divisions, gross margin expanding on merchandise discipline, capital return accelerating. The fact that management is not flowing through the entire Q1 beat to the full year is conservative-credible rather than worrying — they’re flagging fuel reversal honestly.

Despite the 5% pop after the results I have added to my position today. This is such a well run company(personally where I do 80% of my shopping, clearly helps my sentiment). So despite the hefty multiple I think this is an excellent long term holding. If anything, the comp acceleration in HomeGoods (+9% in a weak US home category) and the broad-based traffic gains are the bits the sell-side will likely upgrade on over the next few days, which could mean modest additional follow-through.  About to jump on their conference call later today, but usually the large corporate calls are pretty boring and rarely tell you anything new(unlike AIM shares)

Quick comparison table of old vs new guidance

Metric Old New
Comp sales growth 2-3% 3-4%
Pretax margin ~11.6-11.7% 11.9-12.0%
Diluted EPS ~$4.95-5.02 $5.08-5.15
Share buyback ~$2.5-2.75bn $2.75-3.0bn
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