Ondine (OBI): LANTERN reads out positive (just about)

LANTERN delivered according to the company. The primary analysis estimated a 40% relative reduction in 30-day surgical site infections and met the trial’s prespecified Bayesian criterion for treatment benefit across 5,188 patients, with no treatment-related serious safety concerns identified. That comfortably clears the double-digit bar I set at initiation.

Context matters here. HCA is not a soft comparator.  Delivering 40% incremental reduction on top of an already-optimised standard of care is a harder test than a higher-baseline setting, not an easier one. The disclosure however was thin. No absolute event rates, no credible interval, no adjudicated event counts. The shares spiked to 13.4p in early trade and closed at 12p, giving back almost all of it and finishing flat on a day where you might have thought the share price might double. I read that as the market pricing a known financing overhang and a fairly neutral reading of these initial results. I have learned in my carreer that when it comes to statistics there are many ways you can massage the numbers and I trully hope the lack of details is due to the “top level” highlights rather than something more sinister.

Where the thesis moves. Technology risk is substantially retired. Fair value is now driven by two things: post-raise share count, and whether the FDA accepts an unblinded, group-randomised crossover with a Bayesian endpoint as the basis for a labelling claim. I’m holding my 30p estimate until both are clearer(which might be another 6+months at the very least).

Unless the share price moves meaningfully higher after the details of the trial are revealed in the coming weeks it would be tough to raise $10m+ at the current share price. I will also be looking at what HCA does at the placing as that would be a very important sign. To be honest, I’ve lost a bit of faith in the management due to the constant delays(the results were meant to be out in “spring of 2026”). The situation does not insprire confidence that the FDA submission timelines that Ondine eventually provides would be met, which might mean more cash raises.

Disclosure: I hold a position.